top of page
News, Insight, & Analysis


Fairfax County Housing Market Update | Rising Inventory, Widening Supply-Demand Gap, and Changing Buyer Activity
October 8, 2026 | Northern Virginia Real Estate Strategy The Fairfax County housing market entered October with another 2026 high in Active House Inventory, substantially fewer New Contracts than during the comparable period in 2025, and a significant share of Houses experiencing extended Days on Market. At the same time, recent Contract activity shows an important change: Buyers are becoming less concentrated on Houses in their first two weeks on Market. But the shift has no

Scott Ford
6 days ago


September 2026 Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Update | Inventory continues to rise while Buyer activity declines & remains concentrated on New Listings
A data-driven analysis of Buyer activity, inventory levels, and how the market is split between New Listings and Houses with extended time on market. Tracking Buyer activity and inventory trends helps explain the driving forces shaping the current market—and where the market may be heading next. The current Northern Virginia housing market has a combination of trends that increasingly define the current environment: higher inventory, longer Buyer decision times, and Buyer act

Scott Ford
Oct 2


Fairfax County Buyer Activity Shifts Back Toward New Listings While Extended Days on Market Inventory Remains High | September 17, 2026
Buyer activity in Fairfax County shifted strongly toward newer Listings during the first two weeks of September, even as a majority of Active Houses remained at 30+ Days on Market. The latest data show two market conditions occurring at the same time: the expected September increase in New Listings has added fresh inventory for Buyers to consider, while the substantial extended Days on Market inventory accumulated during the Summer remains in place. The result is an increasin

Scott Ford
Sep 17


Fairfax County Active House Inventory Reaches a 2026 High as September Buyer Activity Lags 2025 | Fairfax County Inventory Tracker | September 15, 2026
Fairfax County Active House inventory reached a new 2026 high during the week ending September 13 as the expected September increase in New Listings coincided with a decline in New Contract activity. There were 2,102 Active Houses at the end of the week—28% more than the same week in 2025. During the week, 365 New Listings entered the market compared with 200 New Contracts. New Listings have now exceeded New Contracts for 29 consecutive weeks. But this week's data introduce

Scott Ford
Sep 15


Mid-August 2026 Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Update | Inventory Continues to Build as Buyers Take Longer to Decide
Northern Virginia is entering the final weeks of summer with an unusual combination of market conditions. The mid-August 2026 Market Update analyzes data on Buyer activity, inventory level, and Days on Market to assess not only the current market environment, but how the market is trending as we look to September. The mid-month Market Updates are a data-driven analysis of Buyer activity, inventory levels, and how the market is split between New Listings and Houses with exten

Scott Ford
Aug 21


Northern Virginia Real Estate Strategic Insight Report | Volume 2 | July 2026 | The 2–3 Week Market Tipping Point
The First Few Weeks on the Market Have Become More Important Than Ever The first two to three weeks after a House is listed have become the most important period for generating Buyer interest in today's Northern Virginia housing market. While Buyers remain active, current market data show that their attention continues to be heavily concentrated on newly listed Houses. Once a House moves beyond this initial window, Buyer activity declines while competition from other longer

Scott Ford
Jul 29


Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Update | Mid-July 2026
One of the most important questions facing today's housing market is not whether Buyers are still purchasing Houses—it is how long they are taking to make their decisions. The data in the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Update in mid-July 2026 continues to support a trend Bella Casa Partners has been tracking for several months. Buyer activity has remained relatively steady, yet inventory continues to increase because Buyers are taking longer to select a House. As more

Scott Ford
Jul 21


Where Fairfax County's Future Housing Growth Will Occur | Long Term Housing Trends Series No. 3
Where new housing is built matters just as much as how much housing is built. Long Term Housing Trends Series No. 2 examined why Fairfax County's population and housing growth are expected to remain closely aligned through 2035, suggesting today's inventory constraints are unlikely to ease meaningfully over the next decade. This report builds on that analysis by examining where Fairfax County future housing growth is projected to occur. The 2025 Fairfax County Demographic Re

Scott Ford
Jul 8


Population Growth Isn’t Solving the Housing Supply Gap in Fairfax County | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
In early May, I shared data from Fairfax County’s Housing Needs Assessment showing that projected housing construction is not expected to meet future demand, which reinforces the long-term Fairfax County housing supply gap. The data from the Fairfax County 2025 Demographic Report (published in June 2026) adds another layer to that analysis. Even when housing is added, the underlying supply-demand imbalance is not being corrected. Fairfax County data shows population and housi

Scott Ford
Jul 1
Search


Mortgage Watch | Freddie Mac Weekly Mortgage Rate Survey | August 20, 2026
Mortgage rates remain close to their highest level of the past year. The August 20, 2026 Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported an average 30-year conventional mortgage rate of 6.65%. That compares with 6.67% the prior week and 6.69% two weeks earlier. The relatively small week-to-week changes are important, but the broader trend provides more useful context. Rates moved sharply higher beginning in early July from a plateau established in late May. The 30-year

Scott Ford
Aug 24


July 2026 Jobs Report Shows Job Losses as 30-Year Mortgage Rate Reaches a 12-Month High | Economy Watch Vol 20
Two noteworthy reports released last week provided updated information on the U.S. labor market and the mortgage-rate environment. The July 2026 Jobs Report showed a loss of 23,000 jobs, substantially below the forecast for 83,000 jobs to be added. At the same time, revisions showed that job creation during May and June was considerably lower than initially reported. Separately, Freddie Mac's latest weekly mortgage rate survey reported an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

Scott Ford
Aug 11


Mortgage Watch: Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates Survey – July 9, 2026
The latest Freddie Mac mortgage rates survey show the average 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage at 6.49% for the week ending July 9, 2026. Although rates increased slightly from the previous week, the broader trend has remained remarkably consistent. Since mid-May, Freddie Mac's weekly survey has shown mortgage rates moving within a relatively narrow range, providing homeowners and Buyers with a stable benchmark despite ongoing economic uncertainty. Freddie Mac Mortga

Scott Ford
Jul 13


Mortgage Watch: Freddie Mac Weekly Mortgage Rate Survey | June 18, 2026
The Freddie Mac Weekly Mortgage Rate Survey reported the average 30-year conventional mortgage rate at 6.47% for the week ending June 18, 2026. Although the rate declined modestly from the prior week, it remains near the highest level observed during Spring 2026. Looking beyond a single week's movement provides better perspective on how mortgage rates have changed over time. Freddie Mac Mortgage Watch - June 18, 2026: The average 30-year conventional mortgage rate declined s

Scott Ford
Jun 22


Mortgage Watch: Mortgage Rate Forecasts Revised Higher | June 2026
The latest mortgage rate forecasts for June 2026 from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) continue the trend of upward revisions that began earlier this spring. While current mortgage rates remain in the mid-6% range, both organizations now expect 30-year conventional mortgage rates to remain higher through the remainder of 2026 than they projected only one month earlier. Mortgage Watch – June 2026. Updated mortgage rate forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mor

Scott Ford
Jun 22


Mortgage Rate Forecast Update (May 2026): Forecasts Revised Higher
Mortgage Rate Forecasts Revised Higher in May 2026 The latest May 2026 mortgage rate forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association reflect another upward revision in expectations for 30-year conventional mortgage rates through the remainder of 2026. Both institutions now project rates remaining materially higher during the second half of the year than earlier forecasts issued at the beginning of the second quarter. May 2026 mortgage forecasts from Fannie Mae

Scott Ford
May 25


Mortgage Rate Forecast Update (April 2026): Fannie Mae Revises Higher, MBA Holds Steady
Mortgage Rate Forecasts Revised Higher for 2026. The latest April 2026 housing forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association provide updated expectations for mortgage rates through the remainder of the year. While both institutions project rates to remain in a similar range, their latest updates reflect different adjustments to prior expectations. Summary of April 2026 mortgage rate forecasts. April 2026 mortgage rate forecasts show continued expectations for

Scott Ford
May 3


Mortgage News for You | Update (April 23, 2026): 30-Year Rate Pulls Back to 6.23%
30-Year Mortgage Rate Moves Lower After Early April Highs Where are mortgage rates in late April 2026? The 30-year fixed conventional mortgage rate declined to 6.23% in the most recent Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey released on April 23, 2026. This represents a modest pullback from recent highs earlier in the month and reflects ongoing movement within a relatively narrow range that has defined the mortgage rate environment over the sixth months. Recent Movement. T

Scott Ford
Apr 24


30 Year Fixed Rate Conventional Mortgage is at a 3+ Year Low Point | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
ON FEBRUARY 19TH, THE 30 YEAR FIXED RATE CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGE IS AT 6.01% PER FREDDIE MAC'S WEEKLY SURVEY. THE CURRENT RATE IS AT A 3+ YEAR LOW. When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider the current and future trend of mortgage interest rates. ➡️ On February 19th, Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey has the 30 Year Fixed Rate Conventional Mortgage at 6.01%. Last week, the weekly average was 6.09%.

Scott Ford
Feb 21


30 Year Fixed Rate Conventional Mortgage Remains Near a 3+ Year Low Point | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
ON FEBRUARY 12TH, THE 30 YEAR FIXED RATE CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGE IS AT 6.09% PER FREDDIE MAC'S WEEKLY SURVEY. THE RATE REMAINS NEAR A 3+ YEAR LOW. When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider the current and future trend of mortgage interest rates. ➡️ On February 12th, Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey has the 30 Year Fixed Rate Conventional Mortgage at 6.09%. The current weekly average is near the lo

Scott Ford
Feb 13


Fannie Mae January 2026 Mortgage Forecast | 30 Year Rate Remains Steady Throughout 2026 | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
Fannie Mae's January 2026 Forecast for the 30 year Conventional Fixed Mortgage has the Rate at a slightly lower level than at present most of the year. If the forecast is accurate, we will have the lowest mortgage rate in 3+ years, with the level at 6.0% from Spring through year end. When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider the current and future trend of mortgage interest rates. ➡️ In their January 2026 E

Scott Ford
Jan 30


30 Year Fixed Rate Conventional Mortgage Now at a 3+ Year Low Point | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
ON JANUARY 15TH, THE 30 YEAR FIXED RATE CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGE IS AT 6.06% PER FREDDIE MAC'S WEEKLY SURVEY. THIS RATE IS AT A 3+ YEAR LOW. When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider the current and future trend of mortgage interest rates. ➡️ On January 15th, Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey has the 30 Year Fixed Rate Conventional Mortgage at 6.06%, which is the low point for 2025. The current week

Scott Ford
Jan 16


2026 Begins with the 30 Year Fixed Rate Conventional Mortgage at a Near 3-Year Low Point | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
ON JANUARY 8TH, THE 30 YEAR FIXED RATE CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGE IS AT 6.16% PER FREDDIE MAC'S WEEKLY SURVEY. THIS RATE IS NEAR A 3-YEAR LOW. When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider the current and future trend of mortgage interest rates. ➡️ On January 8th, Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey has the 30 Year Fixed Rate Conventional Mortgage at 6.16%, which is the low point for 2025. The current weekl

Scott Ford
Jan 12


2025 Ended with the 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate at the Low Point for the Year | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
ON DECEMBER 31st, THE 30 YEAR CONVENTIONAL FIXED MORTGAGE RATE IS AT 6.15% PER FREDDIE MAC'S WEEKLY SURVEY. THIS RATE IS THE LOW POINT IN 2025. When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider the current and future trend of mortgage interest rates. ➡️ On December 31st, Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey has the 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate at 6.15%, which is the low point for 2025. The current wee

Scott Ford
Jan 1


Fannie Mae December 2025 Mortgage Forecast | Slightly Lower Rates in 2026 than Current Level | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
IN LATE DECEMBER 2025, FANNIE MAE FORECASTED SLIGHTLY LOWER 30 YEAR CONVENTIONAL FIXED MORTGAGE RATE IN 2026 THAN CURRENT LEVEL. IF THE FORECAST IS ACCURATE, WE WILL HAVE THE LOWEST MORTGAGE RATE IN 3+ YEARS FOR THE 2nd HALF OF 2026, WITH THE RATE MOVING BELOW 6.0% BY YEAR END. When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider the current and future trend of mortgage interest rates. ➡️ In their December 2025 Econo

Scott Ford
Jan 1


In Early December 2025, 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Back to Lowest Rate since Fall 2024 | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
IN EARLY DECEMBER 2025, THE 30 YEAR CONVENTIONAL FIXED MORTGAGE IS BACK TO THE LOWEST RATE SINCE EARLY OCTOBER 2024. When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider the current and future trend of mortgage interest rates. ➡️ As of December 4, Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey had the 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate at 6.19%, which is the lowest level since early October 2024. ➡️ The 30 Year Convention

Scott Ford
Dec 7, 2025


Fannie Mae November 2025 Mortgage Forecast | Slightly Lower Rates in 2026 than Current Level | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
IN LATE NOVEMBER 2025, FANNIE MAE FORECASTED SLIGHTLY LOWER 30 YEAR CONVENTIONAL FIXED RATE MORTGAGE IN 2026 THAN CURRENT LEVEL. When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider the current and future trend of mortgage interest rates. ➡️ In their November 2025 Economic & Housing Forecast, dated November 21st, Fannie Mae projected the 30 Year Conventional Fixed Rate Mortgage at 6.3% for the end of 2025, 6.1% at mid

Scott Ford
Nov 29, 2025


Non-Jumbo Loan Limit in 2026 raised to $1,249,125 for DC Metro Area | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider the current and future trend of mortgage interest rates. A related topic is the annual Federal loan limit for non-Jumbo mortgage loans. ➡️ The Federal Housing Finance Administration (FHFA) just announced that the 2026 Conforming Loan Limit for High Cost Areas is $1,249,125. This amount is a 3.25% increase to the 2025 High Cost Area Loan Limit . ➡️ The entire DC

Scott Ford
Nov 27, 2025


In Late October 2025, 30 Year Conventional Mortgage is at Lowest Rate in 1 Year | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
IN LATE OCTOBER 2025, THE 30 YEAR CONVENTIONAL FIXED MORTGAGE IS AT THE LOWEST RATE IN 1 YEAR. When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider the current and future trend of mortgage interest rates. ➡️ As of October 23, Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey had the 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate at 6.19%, which is the lowest level since early October 2024. ➡️ The 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate has d

Scott Ford
Oct 27, 2025


Fannie Mae September 2025 Mortgage Forecast | Small Downward Change in Projected 2025 Year End 30-Year Mortgage Rate | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
IN LATE SEPTEMBER 2025, FANNIE MAE MADE A SMALL DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE 30-YEAR CONVENTIONAL FIXED RATE MORTGAGE PROJECTION FOR END OF 2025 AND INTO 2026. When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider the current and future trend of mortgage interest rates. In their September 2025 Economic & Housing Forecast, dated September 23rd, Fannie Mae reduced their projection for the 30-Year Conventional Fixed Rate Mort

Scott Ford
Oct 5, 2025
bottom of page