Mortgage Rate Forecast Update (May 2026): Forecasts Revised Higher
- Scott Ford
- 17 hours ago
- 2 min read
Mortgage Rate Forecasts Revised Higher in May 2026
The latest May 2026 mortgage rate forecasts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association reflect another upward revision in expectations for 30-year conventional mortgage rates through the remainder of 2026.
Both institutions now project rates remaining materially higher during the second half of the year than earlier forecasts issued at the beginning of the second quarter.
Current Rate Snapshot
6.51% — Freddie Mac weekly average (May 21)
6.56% — MBA weekly average (May 20)
6.65% — Mortgage News Daily (May 22)
Current mortgage rates are now tracking above the levels projected in earlier spring forecasts.
Fannie Mae | May Forecast
Q2 — 6.3%
Q3 — 6.3%
Q4 — 6.3%
Prior Forecast (April): 6.3% → 6.2% → 6.1%
Change to Prior Forecast: Fannie Mae revised its forecast higher for the final two quarters of 2026.
Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) | May Forecast
Q2 — 6.4%
Q3 — 6.5%
Q4 — 6.5%
Prior Forecast (April): 6.3% → 6.3% → 6.2%
Change to Prior Forecast: MBA revised its forecast higher for the current quarter and the remainder of 2026.
What This Means
Forecasts for mortgage rates during the second half of 2026 are now notably higher than projections issued earlier in the spring.
These revisions reflect changing economic conditions, evolving interest rate expectations, and continued volatility in the mortgage rate environment.
Bottom Line
The May forecast updates show a meaningful shift higher in projected mortgage rates relative to earlier 2026 expectations.
While exact rate movement remains uncertain, both major forecasting groups are now projecting mortgage rates remaining in the mid-6% range through the balance of the year.
For additional Northern Virginia and Fairfax County market analysis: BellaCasaPartners.com/marketnews.
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