Fannie Mae January 2026 Mortgage Forecast | 30 Year Rate Remains Steady Throughout 2026 | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

Fannie Mae's January 2026 Forecast for the 30 year Conventional Fixed Mortgage has the Rate at a slightly lower level than at present most of the year. If the forecast is accurate, we will have the lowest mortgage rate in 3+ years, with the level at 6.0% from Spring through year end.

When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider the current and future trend of mortgage interest rates.

➡️ In their January 2026 Economic & Housing Forecast, dated December 15th, Fannie Mae projected the 30 Year Conventional Fixed Rate Mortgage at 6.1% for the 1st Quarter, then 6.0% for the rest of 2026. The December Forecast had the rate declining by 0.10% each Quarter from 6.2% to 5.9% by the end of 2026. Fannie Mae's November Forecast was the same as December.

➡️ The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is typically more conservative in their Forecast than Fannie Mae. However, MBA has the 30 Year Rate at 6.1% throughout 2026. This Forecast is a significant downward revision to the December 2025 Forecast, which had the 30 Year Rate noted at 6.4% for each Quarter during 2026.

➡️ On January 29th, the weekly average was 6.10% according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, which is slightly above the Rate the last two weeks (6.06%, then 6.09%).

➡️ For context, the 2025 year end Freddie Mac weekly average Rate was 6.15%. The Rate in late January 2025 was 6.95%. The Rate in mid-Summer 2025 was 6.72%. The current Rate is at the lowest rate in the prior 3 years (6.09% in early February 2023 & 6.08% in late September 2024).

Fannie Mae Mortgage Rate Forecast - January 2026

Freddie Mac Weekly 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Survey for January 29, 2026

Read more at fanniemae.com/data-and-insights/forecast.

🤔🙋🏼‍♂️ WANT TO SEE MORE MARKET ANALYSIS?  For my most recent Deep Dive into Buyer activity, high Active House for sale Inventory & Days on Market in the Northern Virginia market, and the (lack of) impact of the Government Shutdown on Buyer activity compared to 2024, check out my early December 2025 NoVA Market Update.

The first Market Update in 2026 will be published the last week of January.

See more market news, insight, & analysis on my "How's the Market?" Blog at bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.