Fannie Mae December 2025 Mortgage Forecast | Slightly Lower Rates in 2026 than Current Level | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

IN LATE DECEMBER 2025, FANNIE MAE FORECASTED SLIGHTLY LOWER 30 YEAR CONVENTIONAL FIXED MORTGAGE RATE IN 2026 THAN CURRENT LEVEL. IF THE FORECAST IS ACCURATE, WE WILL HAVE THE LOWEST MORTGAGE RATE IN 3+ YEARS FOR THE 2nd HALF OF 2026, WITH THE RATE MOVING BELOW 6.0% BY YEAR END.

When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider the current and future trend of mortgage interest rates.

➡️ In their December 2025 Economic & Housing Forecast, dated December 23rd, Fannie Mae projected the 30 Year Conventional Fixed Rate Mortgage at 6.1% by mid-2026, and 5.9% by year end 2026. This forecast is unchanged from November.

➡️ The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is more conservative in their 2026 forecast, with the 30 Year Rate noted at 6.4% for each Quarter during 2026. MBA expects the 30 Year Rate to move between 6.0-6.5% throughout 2026.

➡️ 2025 ended with the 30 Year Fixed Rate at the low point for the year. On December 31st, the weekly average was 6.15% according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The weekly average in late July was 6.72%. 2025 began with the Rate at 6.92%. The weekly rate has moved in a narrow range since mid-September.

➡️ The 2025 year end Freddie Mac weekly average is at the lowest Rate since early October 2024. The current Rate is slightly above is slightly above the lowest rate in the last three years (6.09% in early February 2022 & 6.08% in late September 2024).

Read more at fanniemae.com/data-and-insights/forecast.

🤔🙋🏼‍♂️ WANT TO SEE MORE MARKET ANALYSIS?  For my most recent Deep Dive into Buyer activity, high Active House for sale Inventory & Days on Market in the Northern Virginia market, and the (lack of) impact of the Government Shutdown on Buyer activity compared to 2024, check out my early December 2025 NoVA Market Update.

The first Market Update in 2026 will be published the 2nd week of January.

See more market news, insight, & analysis on my "How's the Market?" Blog at bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.