Fannie Mae November 2025 Mortgage Forecast | Slightly Lower Rates in 2026 than Current Level | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

IN LATE NOVEMBER 2025, FANNIE MAE FORECASTED SLIGHTLY LOWER 30 YEAR CONVENTIONAL FIXED RATE MORTGAGE IN 2026 THAN CURRENT LEVEL.

When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider the current and future trend of mortgage interest rates.

➡️ In their November 2025 Economic & Housing Forecast, dated November 21st, Fannie Mae projected the 30 Year Conventional Fixed Rate Mortgage at 6.3% for the end of 2025, 6.1% at mid-2026, and 5.9% by year end 2026 forecast is 5.9%.

The October Forecast was the same for year end 2025 and 2026, with the mid-2026 rate at 6.0%, so no substantive change in the November forecast.

➡️ The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is more conservative in their 2026 forecast, with the 30 Year Rate remaining at 6.4% throughout 2026 (vs. a 6.3% rate at the end of 2025).

➡️ At the end of November 2025, the 30 Year Fixed Rate weekly average is 6.23% according to Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. The current average rate is just above above lowest rate in 2025 (6.17% in late September). The weekly average in late July was 6.72%.

➡️ The Freddie Mac weekly average at the end of November 2025 is slightly above the lowest rate in the last three years (6.09% in early February 2022 & 6.08% in late September 2024).

Read more at fanniemae.com/data-and-insights/forecast.

🤔🙋🏼‍♂️ WANT TO SEE MORE MARKET ANALYSIS?  For my most recent Deep Dive into Buyer activity, high Active House for sale Inventory & Days on Market in the Northern Virginia market, and the (lack of) impact of the Government Shutdown on Buyer activity compared to 2024, check out my early November 2025 NoVA Market Update.

The next deep dive NoVA Market analysis update will be posted on Thanksgiving weekend.

See more market news, insight, & analysis on my "How's the Market?" Blog at bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.