Mid-August Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Update | Buying Activity in 1st Half of August trailed 2nd Half of July, as expected, While Inventory & Days on Market Remain High.

Scott Ford
Aug 21
4 min read

Updated: Sep 18

How is the Northern Virginia real estate market in mid-August? Where is the market headed as we look towards Fall 2025?

Let's take a deep dive look at the Buyer Activity Level & Days on Market. More Active Inventory means more options for Buyers, who are taking longer to make a decision on a house than 2024. More options & a longer time to act means continued upward pressure on DoM, which is why we see an increasing DoM over the past two months, even as the level of Buying activity through July is on par with 2024.

I provide a Summary below, but read the full Post for all the details.

Each chart in the Post is also included below for ease of data viewing.

At the start of 2025, I began tracking New Contracts activity in Fairfax County for the first half/second half of each month, with a comparison to 2024 and 2023 Contract activity. This tracking provides real time insight into the Buyer activity trend, especially when compared to the increase in Days on Market data as the Spring 2025 market progressed. As the largest market in NoVA, Fairfax County is a good barometer of the Overall NoVa market.

➡️ New Contracts in 1st Half of August were lower than 2nd Half of August, which is consistent with 2024 & 2023 after a large increase in 2nd Half of July.

➡️ New Contracts were +13% vs. 2024 after being flat or trailing 2024 Contracts the last two periods. Total July Contracts were on par with 2024 (-1.4%).

➡️ Buying activity in Fairfax County during 2025 through July is on par with to 2024 (-1.2% Contracts). New Listings in Fairfax County are up only slightly in 2025 through July (+2.9% vs 2024), with New Listings in May, June, & July slightly trailing 2024. The Northern Virginia market segment as a whole also has a similar small deviation with 2024, with 4.3% more New Listings through July. Total Sales in the NoVA market segment are up less than 1% in 2025 through July versus 2024.

➡️ Active Listings for Sale have increased across all NoVA localities by a significant % in March through July compared to 2024. Fairfax County had 40% more Active Listings versus June 2024, which follows increases of 62%, 46%, & 50% in April, May, & June. August is likely to continue this trend.

➡️ The Days on Market (DoM) numbers show that the Buyers continue to have a lengthy house decision process. The Active for Sale Houses on August 20 in Fairfax County have an Average & Median DoM of 50 & 36 days. The 50% of Houses for Sale above the Median DoM have an average 84 days on market. The Overall Northern Virginia market segment has slightly higher DoM numbers. While the increase in DoM has stabilized at a high level since early July, the DoM numbers still have an upward bias. Plan for this high level of DoM in September.

➡️ The 2025 Spring Market broke the expected trend by increasing Supply each month, with the amount of Supply now at the highest level in the last two years. The Months of Supply in Northern Virginia during April-July was approximately 2x what we saw in 2024. The Supply number stabilized at just under 2 months during this period. The key question is whether the Supply increases further consistent with prior year activity.

📢 WHAT'S THE MOST IMPORTANT MARKET NUGGET? 📢

Over the last 4 weeks, New Contracts & New Listings in Fairfax County were nearly equal, which means the higher Inventory level is not being reduced. The weekly spread is the best indicator of the real-time market and potential leading indicator of where the Market may be trending.

WHAT COMES NEXT? 🙋🏼‍♂️🤔

Does the current data suggest a different level of Buyer activity for the remainder of August into September? Too early to tell, but I lean towards September looking like the last two months. We know that the currently high Inventory level is not being reduced over the past month as New Contracts and New Listings are about even over this period.

We also know that Buyers have more houses to choose from. More choices means a market environment where Buyers have more leverage than we have seen during the past two years. I see nothing in the current data that suggests that the high DoM level we currently have will abate, nor is the high House for Sale Inventory level likely to decline in September unless we get a substantial "overage" of New Contracts vs. New Listings. At present, we are just over 2 months of Inventory in the NoVA market, which is double the level seen in the last 5 years. Our market has been locked in a 1 month inventory range for so long that a 2 month supply of Inventory “feels” & “acts” like a Balanced Market.