Mid-July NoVA Market Update | Buying Activity in 1st Half of July was Lower than 2nd Half of June, As Inventory & Days on Market Remain High | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

Scott Ford
Jul 23
3 min read

Updated: Jul 24

How is the Northern Virginia real estate market in the latter part of July? Let's take a deep dive look at the current Inventory versus Buyer Activity Level. More Active Inventory means more options for Buyers, who are taking longer to make a decision on a house than 2024. More options & a longer time to act means continued upward pressure on DoM, which is why we see an increasing DoM over the past two months, even as the number of New Contracts in March through June is the same as 2024.

I provide a Summary below, but read the full Post for all the details.

Each chart in the Post is also included below for ease of data viewing.

At the start of 2025, I began tracking New Contracts activity in Fairfax County for the first half/second half of each month, with a comparison to 2024 and 2023 Contract activity. This tracking provides real time insight into the Buyer activity trend, especially when compared to the increase in Days on Market data as the Spring 2025 market progressed. As the largest market in NoVA, Fairfax County is a good barometer of the Overall NoVa market.

New Contracts in Fairfax County for 1st Half of July were down 12.8% vs. 2nd Half of June & down 5% to the 1st Half of July 2024.
New Contracts in Fairfax County trailed 2024 for the second straight Half Month Period (1st Half of July & 2nd Half of June).
New Contracts increased significantly in 2nd Half of July in 2023 & 2024 compared to the 1st Half of July. Will this trend hold in 2025? Through July 23rd, New Contracts are tracking in line with the 2024 number, which would result in an approximate 17% increase over 1st Half of July. Let's see if that holds for the final week of July.
Active Listings for Sale have increased across all NoVA localities by a significant % in March, April, May, & June compared to 2024. Fairfax County had 50% more Active Listings versus June 2024. However, New Listings were up slightly compared to March-June 2024 (+6.3% in Fairfax County).
Over the last 4 weeks, New Contracts & New Listings were nearly equal, which means the higher Inventory level is not being reduced.
Days on Market remain high, as the Average Days on Market (DoM) in mid-July is 46 days. For houses that are above the Median DoM (33 days), the Average DoM is 75 days.
Months of Supply typically fall during the peak Spring Market months (March through June), then rise to a yearly Peak in late-Summer into Fall. The 2025 Spring Market not only broke the trend by increasing Supply each month, but the amount of Supply is now at the highest level in the last two years. The Months of Supply in Northern Virginia during April, May, & June was approximately 2x what we saw in 2024. The key question is whether the Supply increases further consistent with prior year activity.

Does this data suggest slower Buyer activity as for the remainder of July into August, as compared to last year, or will we see in increase in New Contracts the 2nd Half of July as we did the last two years. Too early to tell, but definitely something I am watching closely. We do know that the currently high Inventory level is not being reduced over the past month as New Contracts and New Listings are about even over this period.

Without question, we know that Buyers have more houses to choose from. More choices means a market environment where Buyers have more leverage than we have seen during the past two years. If the DOM trend continues, even as New Listings trend downward into July per historical norm, we will likely be in a “Balanced” market, which is defined as 3 months of house inventory. At present, we are just over 2 months in the NoVA market, which is double the level seen in the last 5 years during the Spring Market. Our market has been locked in a sub-1 month inventory range for so long that a 2 month supply of Inventory “feels” & “acts” like a Balanced Market.