Late June NoVA Market Update | New Contracts in 1st Half of June Matched 2024 Level, but Slacking in 2nd Half. Further, Days on Market Continue to Rise | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

Scott Ford
Jun 26
3 min read

Updated: Jun 30

How is the Northern Virginia real estate market in late-June? Let's take a look at the 2-Week Contracts Tracking Chart for the First Half of June. Also, let's look at how the Days on Market data is pushing towards a 'Balanced' Market where Buyers have more choices and more leverage than we have seen in 2023 or 2024.

I provide a Summary below, but read the full Post for all the details.

Each chart in the Post is also included below for ease of data viewing.

At the start of 2025, I began tracking New Contracts activity in Fairfax County for the first half/second half of each month, with a comparison to 2024 and 2023 Contract activity. This tracking provides real time insight into the Buyer activity trend, especially when compared to the increase in Days on Market data as the Spring 2025 market progressed.

Buyer activity through the Spring Market measured by Contracts is unchanged from 2024. For the 3 month height of the Spring 2025 market (March through May), 2025 Contracts in Fairfax County had <2% increase over the 2024 total (71 more Contracts out of 3833 total Contracts). The first half of June continued this trend, with a slightly higher % increase.
We had more New Contracts in the first half of June compared to 2023 & 2024, but the increase was not significant compared to 2024 (40 more Contracts/+6.4%).
For the week ending June 23, New Contracts in Fairfax County continued the trend of a higher number than New Listings (higher 6 of last 7 weeks), but just barely for this week.
HOWEVER, New Contracts for the week ending June 23 were lower versus 2024 for the first time since early May. AND...Contracts in the 2nd Half of June are trailing 2024 (as of June 25) by >11%. This Contracts shortfall would be the first time since 2nd Half of April, which likely was affected by Easter timing this year.

Also, notwithstanding the same level of Contracts in the 2025 Spring Market as compared to 2024, the Higher Days on Market numbers tell a different story. Buyers are taking longer to decide to make an offer, which means houses are staying on market longer. The Average & Median Days on Market for the Active for Sale Houses in Fairfax County on June 25 is 41 & 28 days (<$2M, excluding New Builds & Condos).

When you look at the NVAR Northern Virginia Market Segment (Fairfax & Arlington Counties; Cities of Alexandria, Falls Church, & Fairfax), the DOM picture is similar (43 Average days & 28 Median days as of June 25). 48% of Active Houses in late-June have more than 30 Days on Market. At the end of May, this number was 40%. In mid-May, this number was 31%. While the number of Active Listings in late-June is similar to mid-May, the number of Active Houses with 30+ DOM is up 42% from mid-May.
Fannie Mae now projects in their June 2025 Housing Forecast that the 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rate will fall to 6.5% by end of 2025 & 6.2% by mid-2026. In late-June, the current 30 Year Fixed Rate is around 6.8%. The June Forecast raises the projected Rate from the May Forecast (6.1% by end of 2025 & 5.9% by mid-2026).

Does this data suggest slower Buyer activity as we start Summer versus last year? Too early to tell, but definitely something I am watching closely.

Buyers have more houses to choose from. More choices means a market environment where Buyers have more leverage than we have seen during the past two years. If the DOM trend continues, even as New Listings trend downward into July per historical norm, we will likely be in a “Balanced” market, which is defined as 3 months of house inventory. At present, we are just over 2 months in the NoVA market, which is double the level seen in the last 5 years during the Spring Market. Our market has been locked in a sub-1 month inventory range for so long that a 2 month supply of Inventory “feels” & “acts” like a Balanced Market.