Early July NoVA Market Update | Contracts in June Matched 2024. However, We Have 2x Active Houses & Days on Market Continue to Rise | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

Scott Ford
5 days ago
4 min read

Updated: 21 minutes ago

How is the Northern Virginia real estate market in early July? Let's take a deep dive look at how the increasing Days on Market numbers continues to keep Active Inventory level substantially higher than last year. More Active Inventory means more options for Buyers, who are taking longer to make a decision on a house than 2024. More options & a longer time to act means continued upward pressure on DoM, which is why we see an increasing DoM over the past six weeks, even as the number of New Contracts is the same as 2024.

I provide a Summary below, but read the full Post for all the details.

Each chart in the Post is also included below for ease of data viewing.

At the start of 2025, I began tracking New Contracts activity in Fairfax County for the first half/second half of each month, with a comparison to 2024 and 2023 Contract activity. This tracking provides real time insight into the Buyer activity trend, especially when compared to the increase in Days on Market data as the Spring 2025 market progressed. As the largest market in NoVA, Fairfax County is a good barometer of the Overall NoVa market.

Buyer activity through the 2025 Spring Market measured by Contracts is unchanged from 2024. For the March through June period, 2025 Contracts in Fairfax County was nearly identical to the 2024 total (15 more Contracts out of 5028 total Contracts).
However, Buyer activity slowed in the 2nd Half of June in comparison to both 1st Half of June & 2024, with a more pronounced decline compared to 1st Half of June than last year. The New Contracts number trailed 2024 for the first time since the 2nd Half of April. The shortfall to the 2nd Half of June 2024 was not drastic (-8%), so the focus is on whether this decline continues in 1st Half of July.
Active Listings for Sale in Fairfax County during June were up 50% to 2024. This increase continued the trend in March, April, & May (up 55%, 62%, & 46% to 2024). The entire Washington, DC Metro area saw significant increases in Active Listings for Sale in June. The March, April, & May increases were similarly high in these localities.
New Listings were up far less during March-June in Fairfax County (25.2% in March & 7.5% in April) or down (-0.4% in May & -2.8% in June), for an overall 6.3% increase.
For the week ending July 6th, New Contracts were higher than New Listings, after trailing the prior week. The weekly New Contracts number was down (-6.8%) from the prior week. However, New Contracts were higher versus 2024 (+7.9% = 21 contracts) after 2 straight weeks of lower than 2024 numbers, which had not occurred since the end of April.
Notwithstanding the same level of Contracts in the 2025 Spring Market as compared to 2024, the Days on Market (DoM) numbers tell a different story. Buyers are taking longer to decide to make an offer, which means houses are staying on market longer. The Average & Median Days on Market for the Active for Sale Houses in Fairfax County on July 8th is 45 & 32 days (<$2M, excluding New Builds & Condos).

When you look at the NVAR Northern Virginia Market Segment (Fairfax & Arlington Counties; Cities of Alexandria, Falls Church, & Fairfax), the DoM picture is similar (46 Average days & 33 Median days as of July 9th). 52% of Active Houses in late-June have more than 30 Days on Market. In mid-June this number was 43%. At the end of May, this number was 40%. In mid-May, this number was 31%. While the number of Active Listings in early July is similar to mid-June & mid-May, the number of Active Houses with 30+ DOM is up 20% from mid-June & 53% from mid-May.

Does this data suggest slower Buyer activity as we start Summer versus last year? Too early to tell, but definitely something I am watching closely. We do know that historically there are fewer Contracts in July versus June.

Buyers have more houses to choose from. More choices means a market environment where Buyers have more leverage than we have seen during the past two years. If the DOM trend continues, even as New Listings trend downward into July per historical norm, we will likely be in a “Balanced” market, which is defined as 3 months of house inventory. At present, we are just over 2 months in the NoVA market, which is double the level seen in the last 5 years during the Spring Market. Our market has been locked in a sub-1 month inventory range for so long that a 2 month supply of Inventory “feels” & “acts” like a Balanced Market.