Early November 2025 Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Update | Buyer Activity Not Lessened by Government Shutdown, Still High Days on Market & Inventory Level

Scott Ford
a few seconds ago
7 min read

How is the Northern Virginia real estate market at the start of November?

Has Buyer activity lessened in response to the Government Shutdown? The short answer is No.

At present, Buyer's have more leverage to get their Home of Choice than in the last 3 years due to the 'Buyer Leverage Trifecta', which is due in part to the continued high Days on Market and Active House for sale Inventory as we move into November towards the Holidays.

Let's get the answers through a deep dive look at the Buyer Activity Level measured by New Contracts, Days on Market, and the Inventory of Houses for sale.

Market Snapshot📷 The data on New Contracts shows that Buyer Activity has not been lessened by the Government Shutdown. Both the NoVA Market segment and Fairfax County have slightly higher Contract numbers during October than in 2024. The NoVA Market segment saw higher New Contracts each week for the first 5 weeks of the Shutdown. Fairfax County saw higher New Contracts numbers for 4 of the first 5 Shutdown weeks.

The higher Active Listing Inventory during the Spring and Summer months continued in September and October (up 34% in September to 2024 in Fairfax County, with October likely to have a similar number). Buyers continue to have more House options. Buyers also continue to take more time to decide upon a house, with the Active Houses for sale in Fairfax County on November 5th having a 57 day Average time on market (& the 50% of Active Houses above the Median at a 96 day Average).

More options & a longer time to act means continued upward pressure on Days on Market (DoM), which is why we see an increasing DoM over the past months, even as the level of Buying activity measured by New Contracts is in line with 2024.

Buyers have more leverage to obtain their Home of Choice than in the last 3 years with the current Buyer Leverage Trifecta. When you couple high Inventory & DoM with the recent decline in Mortgage rates to a 1-year low on October 23 & Seller concern about lessening Buyer activity in November as we move towards the Holiday Season, the current market environment creates a leverage opportunity for Buyers to explore. The 'Seasonality' part of this Trifecta will vanish in the New Year, along with a likely increase in Buyers as people newly enter the market as the "Spring Buying" Season starts in February.

I provide a Market Summary below, but read the full Post for all the details.

Each chart in the Post is also included below for ease of data viewing.

At the start of 2025, I began tracking New Contracts activity in Fairfax County for the first half/second half of each month, with a comparison to 2024 and 2023 Contract activity. This tracking provides real time insight into the Buyer activity trend, especially when compared to the notable increase in Days on Market data as the Spring 2025 market progressed, which continued in Summer into Fall. As the largest market in NoVA, Fairfax County is a good barometer of the Overall NoVa market.

Unless otherwise stated, the numbers below and in the End of October 2025 NoVA Market Update refer to Fairfax County. All data is sourced from Bright MLS or NVAR Historical data.

➡️ New Contracts in the 2nd Half of October were up compared to the 1st Half of the month (+10%) and to the same period in 2024 (+6%). For October, the total New Contracts in Fairfax County was equal to October 2024 (only 3 Contracts difference).

➡️ Buying activity (measured by New Contracts) in Fairfax County during 2025 through September is on par with to 2024 (just 7 fewer Contracts in 2025). For the NoVA Market segment*, New Contracts were up 1.4% (183 Contracts over 9 months). As with Fairfax County, the New Contracts in the NoVA Market segment for October 2025 were essentially equal to 2024. The monthly Contract numbers reported by Bright MLS for October will continue to show 2025 has the same number of Buyers as 2024 (numbers due 2nd week of November).

*NVAR defines the NoVA Market segment as Fairfax & Arlington Counties and the Cities of Alexandria, Falls Church, & Fairfax.

➡️ New Listings in Fairfax County are up slightly in 2025 through September (+4% vs 2024/381 more Listings over 9 months), with New Listings in May through August slightly trailing 2024. In the NoVA Market segment, New Listings through September are up slightly more (+5.5%) over 2024. The October monthly numbers for New Listings should be similar to 2024 based upon the October weekly numbers.

The weekly difference in New Contracts vs. New Listings in Fairfax County and the NoVA Market segment is not significant enough to materially reduce the high Active House for sale Inventory (see next bullet).

➡️ Active Listings* for Sale increased across all NoVA localities by a significant % in March through September compared to 2024. In September, Fairfax County had 34% more Active Listings versus 2024, which follows increases of 62%, 46%, 50%, 40%, & 31% in April through August. October will show a similar increase in Active Listings compared to 2024.

The Active Houses for sale in the NoVA Market segment and in Fairfax County on October 29th remained within the range seen earlier in October and preceding months. Active houses in Fairfax County only dropped by 40 houses during the month of October (<$2M, excluding Condos & New Builds). In the NoVA Market segment, Active houses only dropped by 49 houses during October, which means only 9 fewer Active Houses in the non-Fairfax County jurisdictions.

The Active Houses for sale in both Fairfax and the NoVA Market segment dropped below the prior range for the week ending November 5th, but this decline is not due to an increase in New Contracts. Contract activity for the last week is in line (or below) recent weekly New Contracts numbers. The decline is due to fewer New Listings as we move into November, so the same level of Contract activity will draw down Active House for sale Inventory more than in prior weeks.

*The Active Listing category includes all properties that were Active for Sale during the month. As houses stay on market longer, a house might be an Active Listing for 2-4 consecutive months, whereas the same house in 2024 would list and go under contract within 1 month.

➡️ The DoM numbers show that the Buyers continue to have a lengthy house decision process. The Active for Sale Houses on November 5th in Fairfax County had a Median & Average DoM of 37 & 57 days. The 50% of Houses for Sale above the Median DoM had an average 96 days on market. The overall NoVA Market segment had similar DoM numbers (40/59/99 days). The increase in DoM has stabilized at a high level since early July, but with a slight upward trend.

➡️ The DoM numbers for houses going Under Contract in the 2nd Half of October continue to show that a house is taking 2-3 weeks longer to get a Contract than the same period in 2024. The Median DoM for Under Contract Houses during October 14-27 period was 14 days. The Average DoM for a Contract during this period was 32 days. The 50% of Under Contract Houses with more than the Median had a 58 day Average DoM.

This DoM data - and the DoM data for prior two-week periods - suggests that if a house does not get a Contract during the first two weeks on market, Sellers face a likely potential for the House to wait a further month or longer. For houses that have more than the 1 month Average DoM, the wait for a Contract could be as long as 2+ months.

WHAT'S THE MOST IMPORTANT MARKET NUGGET? 📢🔑

The weekly New Listings vs. New Contracts spread remains the best real-time indicator of the current market. This data is also a potential leading indicator of where the Market may be trending when tracked over time.

➡️➡️➡️ We are likely to see the weekly Active Houses for sale numbers for the NoVA Market segment and Fairfax County trend downward as we move through November, as fewer New Listings will occur due to most Sellers waiting into 2026 to List their house for sale. We may also start to see an increase in Active Houses for sale being withdrawn to relist in early 2026 after the Holidays pass.

If the weekly New Contracts numbers remain in the range of prior weeks, any reduction in Active Inventory will not be an indicator of increased Buyer Activity.

WHAT AM I WATCHING IN THE MARKET?🔍👀

With market data showing no lessening of Buyer Activity in October compared to the prior month or to October 2024 as a result of the Government Shutdown, the focus remains on what occurs with Buyer Activity in the next 4 weeks.

Does Buyer Activity increase in November in response to the maximum leverage provided through the Buyer Leverage Trifecta currently in place (High Days on Market/High Active House Inventory - Lowest Mortgage Rates in 1 Year - Seller 'Seasonality' Concern as Holidays Approach)?

We know that Buyers have more houses to choose from with the current higher Inventory level. More choices means a market environment where Buyers have more leverage than we have seen during the past three years. I see nothing in the current data that suggests that the high DoM level we currently have will abate, nor is the high House for Sale Inventory level likely to decline in November unless we get a substantial "overage" of New Contracts vs. New Listings prompted by the the current lower mortgage rates. At present, we are just under 2 months of Inventory in the NoVA market, which is double the level seen in the last 5 years. Our market has been locked in a 1 month inventory range for so long that a 2 month supply of Inventory “feels” & “acts” like a Balanced Market.