Did the Government Shutdown Reduce Buyer Activity in NoVA? The Short Answer is No. The Long Answer is More Complex | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

Did the Government Shutdown reduce Buyer Activity in the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market? Let's take a look at Fairfax County. As the largest jurisdiction, it is a good barometer for the overall NoVA Market.

The Short Answer? No, the Government Shutdown has not reduced Buyer Activity in Fairfax County. New Contracts** were up slightly (+4%) over the 5 week Shutdown versus the same weeks in 2024.  

Now for the more Complex Answer. Check out the chart below, but the Summary is as follows:

➡️ How many Buyers put off their House Search during the Shutdown, who would otherwise have been Active during October in response to the decline in Mortgage Rates since mid-Summer & the High Active House Inventory? Rates are about 0.5% lower than mid-Summer. Active Inventory is far higher than in 2024, with October Active Listings +35% in Fairfax County (+42% in overall NoVA Market), with November continuing this high level.

➡️ If a significant number of Buyers did defer their House search, another Question arises. With the Shutdown over, will these Buyers start to be Active in the November-December Holiday period or will they now wait until early 2026?

👀🔑 WHAT AM I WATCHING? There are two ways to measure Buyer Activity level.

The first is comparing current Activity level to a prior weeks/months period to spot a Trend.

The other means is to compare Buyer Activity to the same period the prior year. The latter approach can be especially useful in a period when Buyer Activity is historically lower (e.g., the November-December Holiday period).

➡️ The first week/weekend following the Shutdown end did not show an increase in Buyer Activity above the level during the Shutdown weeks.

➡️ During the first post-Shutdown end week, Contract Activity was up by 15% compared to 2024 (Week of November 12-18).

If the end of the Shutdown is going to bring about an increased level of Buyer Activity, we should see evidence of this activity over the next week (i.e., the first full week/weekend following the Shutdown end).

🤔🙋🏼‍♂️ WANT TO SEE MORE MARKET ANALYSIS? For my most recent Deep Dive into Buyer activity, high Active House for sale Inventory & Days on Market in the Northern Virginia market, and the (lack of) impact of the Government Shutdown on Buyer activity compared to 2024, check out my early November 2025 NoVA Market Update.

The next deep dive NoVA Market analysis update will be posted on Thanksgiving weekend.

See more market news, insight, & analysis on my "How's the Market?" Blog at bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.

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