How is the NoVA Market as We Close Out August? Inventory Remains High, with the Already High Days on Market Still Increasing. | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

How is the Northern Virginia real estate market in the as we end August?

Let's take a look at the Active Listings and Days on Market (DoM) data for the last week of August.

✨Market Snapshot. More Active Inventory means more options for Buyers, who are taking longer to make a decision on a house than 2024. More options & a longer time to act means continued upward pressure on DoM. As a result, we have an increasing DoM over the past 2-3 months, even as the number of New Contracts & Sales month to month through July (& into August) is the materially the same as the 2024 months, with only a small increase in New Listings over 2024. See my deep dive mid-August Northern Virginia Market Update on this Blog (link to Post) for a detailed discussion of Buyer Activity and DoM trends heading into September.

🤔What Comes Next? If we continue to have a small weekly difference between New Contracts & New Listings, the upward pressure on DoM will continue. Unless the Active House number gets drawn down, especially the high-DoM houses, the high DoM numbers are likely to continue into September, with the Active Listing total remaining high vs. 2024.

🧠🤷‍♂️What is the importance of knowing this data?  The current inventory situation poses challenges & opportunities for both buyers & sellers to consider. The quality, credibility, & experience of your agent will have a decisive impact upon your selling or buying outcome. An agent’s depth of market knowledge is a key to success. Guessing about the market is not an effective strategy, nor is it valuable advice to a client seeking guidance. Market data is meaningless without a top-tier real estate professional to interpret what it means - & just as important, what it does not mean - in your particular buying or selling circumstance.

➡️ New Contracts vs. New Listings for the Week Ending August 24. New Contracts fell from the near 300 level seen during the prior 5 weeks (-8.6% from prior week).  New Listings also declined from the prior week (-14.7%) back to the 250 range seen in the first half of August.  The weekly difference in New Contracts & New Listings is not significant enough to change the high Inventory level we have at present.  Both numbers are in line with the same week in 2024 (down <3%).

➡️ We have a much Higher Inventory Level Compared to 2024. We have far more inventory built up in June & July than last year (Active Listings +50% in June & +40% in July versus 2024).  The August monthly data should show a similar increase to 2024.

➡️ Buying activity measured by Contracts in Fairfax County & the NoVA market segment during 2025 through July is on par with to 2024, with New Listings up only slightly compared to 2024.

In Fairfax County, Contracts are down slightly to 2024 (-1.2% Contracts). New Listings in Fairfax County are up only slightly in 2025 through July (+2.9% vs 2024), with New Listings in May, June, & July slightly trailing 2024.  

The Northern Virginia market segment (Fairfax & Arlington Counties; Cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, & Falls Church) also has a similar small deviation with 2024, with only 4.3% more New Listings through July. Total Sales and Contracts in the NoVA market segment are up less than 1% in 2025 through July versus 2024.

➡️ Why the dramatic increase in Inventory? Buyers are taking far longer to decide upon a house, which means significantly higher DoM.

✅As of August 27, the Average/Median DoM for Active houses in Fairfax County is 51/41 days (vs 29/16 in mid-May), with the 50% of Active houses above the Median now at a 90 day Average DoM.

✅For the Northern Virginia Market segment, the Average/Median DoM on August 27 is 56/41 days, with the 50% of Active houses above the Median now at a 94 day Average DoM.

➡️ The higher DoM translates into more Inventory, which means an increase in Months of Supply. Not only is the Average Months of Supply higher in 2025 for the January-July period, the spread to 2024 is even higher for May (1.96 vs. 0.95 months), June (1.84 vs. 1.01 months), & July (1.85 vs. 0.89). August is likely to have a 50% higher spread as the Months of Supply in August last year was 1.29 months.

👀🙋🏼‍♂️ What I Am I Closely Watching? We had a significant upward move in Median DoM in the last week (ending August 27).  There was no material change in DoM for the Under Contract houses over the past week versus prior 2 weeks.  An increase in houses taken Off-Market could push the Median DoM higher.  The decline in Active houses during August when New Contract vs. New Listing activity has not been materially different week-to-week may also suggest more houses taken Off-Market.  The Active level vs. DoM tracking is a market indicator to watch in early September.

I regularly update this 'Market News for You' Blog with market analysis and updates on our Northern Virginia real estate market, with a focus upon Alexandria & Kingstowne.

For for my prior deep dive Market Update posts from, check out the following links:

• Mid-August 2025 NoVA Market Update;

• Mid-July 2025 NoVA Market Update;

• Early July 2025 NoVA Market Update;

• Late June 2025 NoVA Market Update;

• Mid-June 2025 NoVA Market Update;

• Early June 2025 NoVA Market Update; &

• Late May 2025 NoVA Market Update.

See more market news, insight, & analysis on my "How's the Market?" Blog at bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.