The Buyer Leverage Trifecta in Late Fall 2025 - A Great Opportunity to Get Your Home of Choice | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market
- Scott Ford
- Oct 28
- 3 min read
Updated: Oct 29
IN LATE OCTOBER 2025, BUYERS HAVE MORE LEVERAGE TO GET THEIR HOME OF CHOICE THAN IN THE LAST THREE YEARS.
This Buyer Leverage Trifecta exists Right Now, which creates an opportunity for Buyers that will likely diminish in early 2026.
Why do Buyers have such Leverage? Why right now, but not in early 2026?
Check out the current Buyer Leverage Trifecta in the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market.
One element of this Trifecta will go away entirely after the New Year begins. How many new Buyers enter the Market in early 2026 as the "Spring Buying Season" starts in February is unknown, but there will be more active Buyers than at present. More Buyers will increase the chance of competition for your Home of Choice. Mortgage rates can rise from the current point, with even a small rise increasing the cost of a home purchase, in addition to Buyer competition pushing house prices higher.
What are the elements of the Buyer Leverage Trifecta?
1️⃣ In the Northern Virginia Market segment*, we have far more Active House for Sale Inventory in late Fall 2025 than in 2024, with Buyers taking far longer to decide upon a House. At present, Active Houses have a 39 day Median/57 day Average time on Market, with the 50% of Active Houses above the Median at 96 days. In September, the Active House Inventory was 41% higher than September 2024. The October number will show a similar high Inventory level compared to 2024. The high Inventory number will carry into November as the number of New Contracts each week is not materially different than the New Listings, so the Inventory number is not decreasing.
More Active Inventory, with Buyers taking longer to decide upon a house, means less competition for your Home of Choice.
*The NoVA Market segment includes Fairfax & Arlington Counties and the Cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, & Falls Church.
2️⃣ Mortgage rates have declined substantially since mid-Summer, to the lowest level in over one year.
➡️ As of October 23, Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey had the 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate at 6.19%, which is the lowest level since early October 2024.
➡️ The 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate has dropped about 0.50% since mid-Summer 2025. In late September, the 30 Year Fixed Rate weekly average was 6.26%. The weekly average in late August was 6.56%. At the end July, the weekly average was 6.72%.
➡️ The current rate is nearing the lowest level in the last 3 years (6.08% in late September 2024 & 6.09% in early February 2023).
3️⃣ The Seasonality effect upon Seller Mindset as we move into November. Sellers with Active Houses have to start worrying when an offer will occur as Buyer activity historically declines as we end October into November. At some point in November, a sizeable number of active Buyers who have not yet found their home will put their search on hold until after the Holidays. This situation creates an "if I do not reach agreement with this Buyer who made an offer, when will another offer come" scenario that gives an additional point of Leverage to the Buyer.
If you are thinking a new home, seize this opportunity.
For for my most recent deep dive Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Update, check out this link:
The late October Market Update will be published this week. Prior market updates are at the following links:
Late August 2025 NoVA Real Estate Market Update;
Mid-August 2025 NoVA Real Estate Market Update;
See more market news, insight, & analysis on my "How's the Market?" Blog at bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.
Comments