How's the NoVA Market as We Close out July? An Uptick in Buying Activity, but Inventory & Days on Market Remain High | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

How is the Northern Virginia real estate market in the as we end July? Let's take a deep dive look at the current Inventory versus Buyer Activity Level. More Active Inventory means more options for Buyers, who are taking longer to make a decision on a house than 2024. More options & a longer time to act means continued upward pressure on DoM. As a result, we have an increasing DoM over the past 2-3 months, even as the number of New Contracts & Sales month to month through July is the materially the same as the 2024 months, with only a small increase in New Listings over 2024.

What is the importance of knowing this data? 🧠🤷‍♂️ The current inventory situation poses challenges & opportunities for both buyers & sellers to consider. The quality, credibility, & experience of your agent will have a decisive impact upon your selling or buying outcome. An agent’s depth of market knowledge is a key to success. Guessing about the market is not an effective strategy, nor is it valuable advice to a client seeking guidance. Market data is meaningless without a top-tier real estate professional to interpret what it means - & just as important, what it does not mean - in your particular buying or selling circumstance.

➡️ For the Week ending July 27, New Contracts in Fairfax County climbed back above the 300 level for the second straight week, following two sub-300 weeks. New Listings rose slightly to the 300 level. The dramatic increase in New Listings 3 weeks ago (along with the low point so far in New Contracts) appears to be a one-off event.

➡️ Over the last month, New Contracts averaged just under 300 per week, with the New Listings average just above 300 per week. As a result, total Active inventory remains at the high level at we start August.

➡️ Comparing weekly activity to 2024 has limited relevance, as we have far more inventory built up in June & July than last year (50% more Active Listings in June than 2024).

➡️ Looking at the NVAR Northern VA market segment (Fairfax & Arlington Counties, Cities of Alexandria, Falls Church, & Fairfax) in January through June 2025, we have the same level of House Sales as 2023 & 2024, with slightly more New Listings than 2024 (only 5% more).

➡️ Why the dramatic increase in Inventory? Buyers are taking far longer to decide upon a house, which means significantly higher Days on Market (DoM). As of July 30, the Average/Median DoM for Active houses in Fairfax County is 47/34 days (vs 29/16 in mid-May), with the 50% of Active houses above the Median now at a 77 day Average DoM. If New Contracts & New Listings continue to be roughly equal, the upward pressure on DoM will continue.

➡️ The higher DoM translates into more Inventory, which means Months of Supply. Not only is the Average Months of Supply higher in 2025 for the January-June period, the spread to 2024 is even higher for May (1.96 vs. 0.95 months) & June (1.84 vs. 1.01 months). July is likely to have a similar 2x spread as the Months of Supply in July last year was 0.89 months.

I regularly update this Market News for You blog with market analysis and updates on our Northern Virginia real estate market, with a focus upon Alexandria & Kingstowne.

For for my prior deep dive Market Update posts from, check out the following links:

• Mid--July 2025 NoVA Market Update:

• Early July 2025 NoVA Market Update;

• Late June 2025 NoVA Market Update;

• Mid-June 2025 NoVA Market Update;

• Early June 2025 NoVA Market Update; &

• Late May 2025 NoVA Market Update.

See more market news, insight, & analysis on my "How's the Market?" Blog at bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.