Inflation Watch | December 2025 Core CPI Beats Market Forecast & Delayed November PPI Data| Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider current and future mortgage interest rates. One economic number that can affect mortgage rates is Inflation, as the Fed watches this data when assessing whether to take action that can affect mortgage rates. This Inflation Watch monthly update tracks Consumer & Wholesale Inflation numbers and related information.nn

💵💲💰 INFLATION WATCH - WHAT DO THE DECEMBER 2025 NUMBERS SHOW? Check out the data. ⬇️⬇️⬇️ The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers on January 13th. The November Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers for wholesale costs were published on January 14th (delayed due to Government Shutdown). The December PPI numbers will be published on January 30th.

☑️ To recap the November CPI numbers, the top line number rose 0.2% in November (versus the expected 0.3% rise), after rising 0.3% in September. The annual rate was 2.7% (versus 3.1% forecast) over the past 12 months, after a 3.0% annual rate in September. No CPI numbers in October due to the Government Shutdown.

☑️ December CPI rose 0.2% & 2.7% for the last twelve months. Both numbers matched the Market forecast (also same as November CPI numbers).

☑️ Core CPI, which strips out volatile Food and Energy prices, rose by 0.2% in September & 2.6% for the last twelve months (same as November CPI numbers). Both numbers beat the 0.3% & 2.7% forecast. September Core CPI numbers were 0.2% and 3.0%. Core CPI is the number considered by the Federal Reserve to be a better gauge of long term trends.

☑️ The November PPI, which measures wholesale prices, rose 0.2% (vs. the +0.3% forecast). PPI increased 3.0% over the last 12 months. Core CPI rose 0.2% in November and 3.5% over the last 12 months. BLS did not publish a separate October PPI Report due to the Government Shutdown. The December PPI numbers will be published on January 30th.

A thank you as always to Sarah Gibbs Senior Mortgage Loan Officer at First Heritage Mortgage. ☎️ 202-280-5842 | 📧 sgibbs@fhmtg.com

If you want to discuss how inflation might affect the Northern Virginia real estate market in early 2026, or you have a specific real estate buying or selling need, please consider me a resource.

For all my deep dive market analysis & monthly updates on the NoVA real estate market, including West End Alexandria & Kingstowne areas, check out bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.

My latest deep dive NoVA Market Update for December is at the following link. Check out the early December 2025 update here, where i took a look at Buyer activity and Days on Market data as an indicator of what we are seeing in the Northern Virginia Real Estate market as we start 2026.

My next deep dive NoVA Market Update will be published in mid-January with a further look at data that could indicate what kind of Buyer Activity & New Listings trend we may see in our Spring 2026 Market, which starts in February.