Inflation Watch | August 2025 CPI Comes in Generally as Expected, but Wholesale Prices (PPI) Declined | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider current and future mortgage interest rates. One economic number that can affect mortgage rates is Inflation, as the Fed watches this data when assessing whether to lower the Fed Funds rates. This Inflation Watch monthly update tracks Consumer & Wholesale Inflation numbers and related information.

💵💲💰 INFLATION WATCH - WHAT DO THE AUGUST 2025 NUMBERS SHOW? Check out the data. ⬇️⬇️⬇️

☑️ Top Line Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in August (versus the expected 0.3% rise), after rising 0.2% in July. The annual rate was 2.9% (same a forecast) over the past 12 months, after a 2.7% annual rate in July.

☑️ Core CPI, which strips out volatile Food and Energy prices, rose by 0.3% in August & 3.1% for the last twelve months. Both numbers matched the forecast. Core CPI is the number considered by the Federal Reserve to be a better gauge of long term trends.

☑️ While the CPI numbers were generally in line with expectations, the Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale prices, unexpectedly declined 0.1% (vs. the +0.3% forecast). PPI increased 2.6% over the last 12 months, after rising 3.3% in July. Core CPI also declined 0.1% (vs the +0.3% forecast).

A thank you as always to Sarah Gibbs Senior Mortgage Loan Officer at First Heritage Mortgage. ☎️ 202-280-5842 | 📧 sgibbs@fhmtg.com

If you want to discuss how inflation might affect the Northern Virginia real estate market heading into Fall, or you have a specific real estate buying or selling need, please consider me a resource.

For all my deep dive market analysis & monthly updates on the NoVA real estate market, including West End Alexandria & Kingstowne areas, check out bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.

My latest market update posted this week. Check out the mid-September 2025 update here, where i take a look at Buyer activity and Days on Market data as an indicator of what we may see in the Northern Virginia Real Estate market in Fall 2025.