Late February Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Update | A Divided 'Hot' vs. 'Not' Market as Buyers Focus on Newer Listed Houses for Sale
- Scott Ford
- Feb 28
- 3 min read
Updated: 4 days ago
How is the Northern Virginia real estate market in late February 2026?
What does the current Market data tell us about the 2026 Spring Market?
Let's get the answers through a deep dive look at Buyer Activity by comparing Days on Market (DoM) for New Contracts to the Active House for Sale Inventory for Fairfax County and the Greater NoVA Market* segment.
The Greater NoVA Market segment is comprised of the NVAR NoVA Market segment (Fairfax & Arlington Counties/Cities of Alexandria, Falls Church, & Fairfax), plus Loudoun and Prince Williams Counties.
As the largest market in NoVA, Fairfax County is a good barometer of the Overall NoVa market. This holds true for the following analysis, as the data is similar for Fairfax County and the Greater NoVA Market segment.
➡️ Buyers continue to focus upon newer listed Houses from late January into February. Buyers are looking past 'stale' Houses carried over from 2025, even though these high DoM Houses are half the current Active House for Sale Inventory.
➡️ Buyers in the NoVA Market are putting newer listed Houses Under Contract at a 3- or 4-to-1 ratio compared to high DoM Houses that have 3-5 months time on Market.
➡️ Contrast this ratio with the data that more than 50% of the current Active Houses for Sale in NoVA date back to November 2025 (3+ months time on Market). One-third of these Active Houses date back to a late September/early October 2025 List date (i.e., 5 months time on Market).
WHAT DOES THIS DATA MEAN? IT IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR BUYERS. The divergence between Under Contract and Active House DoM means a Buyer opportunity exists. Buyers can seek to leverage high DoM Houses for lower ‘Buy-In’ price. Sellers with high DoM Houses need to weigh risk of Buyers focusing on the ever increasing number of newly listed Houses, as their ‘stale’ House lingers.
WHAT IS THE KEY DATA TO WATCH?
🌟 Weekly New Contracts & New Listings numbers for signs of increased Buyer Activity from 2025 in response to ‘Spring Buying Market’ psychology & Mortgage Rates at a 3+ Year low point. Buyer Activity on recently listed Houses seems to be solid, with numbers slightly higher than 2025 for the same period (New Contracts are +4% vs. 2025 over the last two 2 week tracking periods). No signs yet of a 'Breakout' of significantly higher Buyer Activity or Sellers moving to sell as compared to 2025.
🌟Whether the Active House Inventory returns to the prior Historical trend of falling during the Spring Market even as new Listings start to increase in February vs. Inventory increasing each month as in Spring 2025.
🌟 Weekly Active House for Sale Inventory as a measure of whether the long Buyer house decision process in 2025 that increased Days on Market & Active Inventory level continues into 2026. Does Buyer Activity increase or quicken as New Listings start to ramp up in late-February into March? Do New Listings increase vs. 2025 as Sellers who deferred action in 2023-2025 due to higher Mortgage Rates now act to list their house with Rates at a 3+ Year low point?
WANT TO SEE MORE MARKET ANALYSIS? See more market news, insight, & analysis on my "How's the Market?" Blog at bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.
Check out my first Deep Dive NoVA Real Estate Market Update for 2026 at this link:
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