Inflation Watch | Shutdown-Delayed September 2025 Core PPI Beats Market Forecast | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

When asking the question, "How is the Northern Virginia Real Estate Market?", part of the answer is to consider current and future mortgage interest rates. One economic number that can affect mortgage rates is Inflation, as the Fed watches this data when assessing whether to lower the Fed Funds rates. This Inflation Watch monthly update tracks Consumer & Wholesale Inflation numbers and related information.

💵💲💰 INFLATION WATCH - WHAT DO THE SEPTEMBER 2025 NUMBERS SHOW? Check out the data. ⬇️⬇️⬇️ The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) published the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers prior to the Government Shutdown (see prior Post in this series). The September Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers for wholesale costs got delayed until November 24th.

☑️ To recap the September CPI numbers, the top line number rose 0.3% in September (versus the expected 0.4% rise), after rising 0.4% in August. The annual rate was 3.0% (versus 3.1% forecast) over the past 12 months, after a 2.9% annual rate in August.

☑️ Core CPI, which strips out volatile Food and Energy prices, rose by 0.2% in September & 3.0% for the last twelve months. Both numbers beat the 0.4% & 3.1% forecast. August Core CPI numbers were +0.3% and 3.1%. Core CPI is the number considered by the Federal Reserve to be a better gauge of long term trends.

☑️ The Producer price index (PPI), which measures wholesale prices, rose 0.3% in September (same as Forecast) & 2.9% over the last year. Core PPI rose 0.1% (less than the 0.2% forecast) & 2.6% over the last year. Goods Prices rose 0.9%, which is the largest jump since February 2025 (also +0.9%). The Rise was mainly due to increased gasoline prices.

A thank you as always to Sarah Gibbs Senior Mortgage Loan Officer at First Heritage Mortgage. ☎️ 202-280-5842 | 📧 sgibbs@fhmtg.com

If you want to discuss how inflation might affect the Northern Virginia real estate market heading into 2026, or you have a specific real estate buying or selling need, please consider me a resource.

For all my deep dive market analysis & monthly updates on the NoVA real estate market, including West End Alexandria & Kingstowne areas, check out bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.

My latest deep dive NoVA Market Update for late November will post after Thanksgiving. Check out the early November 2025 update here, where i take a look at Buyer activity and Days on Market data as an indicator of what we are seeing in the Northern Virginia Real Estate market in late Fall 2025.