Did the September Decline in Mortgage Rates Lead to Increased NoVA Buyer Activity? The Short Answer is 'Not So Far.' |Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Update
- Scott Ford
- Oct 2
- 2 min read
How is the Northern Virginia real estate market as we begin October? Did the decline in mortgage rates in expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut at the September 17th meeting cause more Buyers to act?
The short answer is not so far.
For the last three weeks of September, New Contracts in Fairfax County were at the +/-300 Level seen during most of July & August.  The first week of September was well below this level, which was likely caused in part by the Labor Day Holiday. New Contracts were not only comparable to weekly numbers seen in July and August, they were in line with the same period in 2024 (down just 1-2% over the last 3 weeks of September vs. 2024).
During this period, the 30 year Conventional mortgage rate declined to test one year low point.
However, so far, there is no apparent increase in Buyer activity (measured by New Contracts) responding to the recent mortgage rate decline as the market anticipated the Federal Reserve September rate cut.  Nor has publicity of the September 17 cut prompted increased Buyer activity.
Check out the chart below.
Market thought for Buyers. If you are thinking of buying a new home, the present circumstances give Buyers more choices and more leverage than we have seen in the last 2+ years. The recent decline in mortgage rates coupled with far more House for Sale Inventory as houses are taking longer to go Under Contract and the "Seasonality" factor as we move through October putting pressure on Sellers, creates Buyer leverage. The opportunity that exists right now to get your Home of Choice with no competition may change in early 2026 as more Buyers enter the market.
Next up is my early October deep dive look at the Buyer Activity Level measured by New Contracts, Days on Market, and Inventory of Houses for sale.
For for most recent deep dive Market Update in mid-September, check out this link.
See more market news, insight, & analysis on my "How's the Market?" Blog at bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.
