A Late April 2025 NoVA Market Update | A Deep Dive into the Bright MLS Weekly Update for Greater DC Area | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

How's the NoVA real estate market in late April?

Let's take a look at what weekly data is showing for the Northern Virginia Real Estate market, using the new data source provided by Bright MLS. For all my deep dive market analysis & monthly updates on the NoVA real estate market, including West End Alexandria & Kingstowne areas, check out bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.

Sadly - although not surprising for my profession - most agents will not be aware of this new data source. Even fewer will take to time to assess what this data may mean for their current and future clients.

In late-February, Bright MLS started a weekly market update for the Greater DC Area, with data on New Listings, New Contracts, and Showings. The last data point is notable as it is the first time agents have weekly data on Showings to analyze as another indicator of Buyer activity and trends over time. Prior to this new weekly update, Showing data was only available as a monthly total.

I focus on the data for Fairfax County as a barometer of the overall NoVA market. I created these charts to show week-to-week trends, along with a comparison to the corresponding 2024 week. Also, since a % increase amount for New Listings can be misleading, I quantified the % increase to show how many properties are represented by the increase.

The weekly data is provided for various localities (e.g., Fairfax, Arlington, Loudoun, Prince William, & Stafford Counties, the City of Alexandria, etc.). Although the weekly data does not account for property types, price points, and other elements that affect market activity, this data is a useful resource for trend analysis to assess what the market might be like over the next 4-6 weeks.

Bright Weekly Data Report for Week Ending April 20th. 

• New Listings in Fairfax County for the week ending April 20th were up 3.0% compared to prior year.  That % increase equates to 11 properties.  New Listings were down slightly (-5.2%) compared to prior week (379 New Listings vs. 400 New Listings). 

• The last seven (7) weeks (i.e., March 3rd through April 20th) the weekly number of New Listings has been between 377 (week ending March 30th) and 415 (week April 6th).  The number of properties listed for sale in March and April is higher than in 2024. However, we have not seen a “spike” in New Listings weekly period, as the weekly numbers have remained in a narrow range.

  
  

  See the New Listings chart below.

How Have New Listings in 2025 Compared to 2024?

• Compared to 2024, this seven (7) week period had 453 more New Listings, which is an 16.5% increase over 2024.  However, the increase in New Listings versus 2024 has lessened each week in April until the nearly flat number the week ending April 20th.

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• Bright’s March monthly market report for Fairfax County shows a 25.1% increase in New Listings versus 2024.

  
  

• The increase in New Listings in March (& April), even if not seemingly large on a weekly basis in the actual number of listings  (vs. looking solely at the % increase to a lower 2024 number), has contributed to the significant % increase in Active Listings for March (i.e., 55.1% higher than March 2024 per Bright’s March monthly market report for Fairfax County).

  
  

• The higher number of New Listings, coupled with the weekly numbers for New Contracts trailing the New Listing numbers each week (except for bring equal the week ending April 13th), led to the high % increases in Active Listings versus March 2024. The other contributing factor is that houses are taking longer on market to go under contract, so houses that listed for sale in February, but did not go under contract until sometime in March added to the March Active Listing number.

  
  

  The following local jurisdictions in the Bright March Monthly Market Report had the following % increases in Active Listings versus March 2024. 

  
  

  

  
  

• Per Bright’s response to my inquiry, the “Active Listings” category in Bright’s Monthly Market Report includes all Active listings during the month.  The number does not include Coming Soon listings that did not shift to Active status during the month. 

  The Active Listings number has the potential to be misleading if viewed in isolation, as an increase over prior year (or prior month) could be offset by contract activity during the same month.  The comparison of New Listings to New Contracts each week/month is the best means to assess what is going on in the market in real time.  However, the Active Listings number can be useful when viewed along with New Listings and New Contracts numbers to assess whether overall inventory levels are increasing (or are likely to).'

  
  

• Some of the New Listings increase in March was absorbed by the significant increase in Contracts during the March 16-31 period as compared to prior two (2) weekly periods and to the same period in 2024 (720 in 2025 vs. 597 in 2024).  However, even with this “blowout” Contracts number in the 2nd half of March, the New Listings exceeded New Contracts each week during March (net +355 New Listings).

  
  

  WHAT AM I WATCHING?

  
  

• The weekly comparison between New Listings and New Contracts continues to be the data point for our overall market (e.g., Fairfax County & NoVA market) that I suggest that we all watch.

  
  

  New Contracts for the week ending April 20th were flat vs. 2024 (+1.5%), with the prior week also flat to 2024 (-2.7%).  The significant reduction in Showings in the week ending April 20th (see below) did not materially impact/lessen buyers putting houses under contract as compared to 2024 (i.e., this year’s Spring Break/Easter week had a similar number of contracts as the same week last year that did not have Spring Break/Easter).

  
  

• The other data point to watch is the monthly numbers on Active Listings to see if the significant % increases across all jurisdictions in Bright’s Monthly Market Report for March continues in April.

  
  

• Showings during March and April continue to lag 2024 numbers. Showings during March were down 5.5% to March 2024, so not a dramatic difference. April Showings per week have been down at a higher % rate than March (see chart below).

  
  

  Showings for the week ending April 13th were flat compared to prior week (-0.5%/40 fewer showings). Showings for the week ending April 20th dropped 25.4% from the prior week (& down 30.7% from the same week in 2024).

  
  

  The school calendar/Easter Holiday may provide the reason for this dramatic reduction in Showings. See the chart below.

  
  

  

  
  

  With the caveat that correlation does not mean causation, the 2025 and 2024 data suggest that FCPS Spring Break/Easter in the last two years resulted in significant decline in Showings for the corresponding week. 

  
  

  Spring Break/Easter week in 2024 was the week ending March 30th.  The Showings total for the week ending March 30th this year was up 23.1% vs. 2024.  The total number of Showings this week in 2024 was 4429, which is nearly the same as Showings during Spring Break/Easter week in 2025 (4477).

  
  

  Showings the week after Spring Break/Easter week in 2024 were substantially higher than Showings this same week in 2025 (i.e., week ending April 6/-26.5%).  This could indicate that Showings may be substantially higher this current week/weekend as buyers who were on Holiday last week return to/start their house search.