Fall NoVA Market creates a Buyer Leverage Trifecta (High Inventory - Lower Mortgage Rates - Seller 'Seasonality' Worries) | Northern Virginia Real Estate Market | Monthly Market Stats for October 2025

The October 2025 Bright MLS monthly data for the Washington Metro real estate market is provided below for the following areas:

• Alexandria City.

• Arlington County.

• Fairfax County.

• Loudoun County.

• Montgomery County.

• Prince Georges County.

• Washington, DC.

  
  

➡️ The following paragraph in the "Housing Market Trends" section of the Bright MLS Washington Metro area Monthly Market Report for October 2025, published November 11th, summarizes one element of Buyer Leverage in the current market environment:

"Inventory is increasing faster in the Washington D.C. region than in other parts of the Mid-Atlantic. At the end of October, there were 10,661 homes available for sale across the metro area, a 34.1% increase from a year ago."

(Emphasis added.) This statement about higher Inventory compared to October 2024 applies to the localities in the Northern VIrginia Real Estate Market, as seen in the monthly numbers in this Post.

For the Northern Virginia Market segment as a whole, the Active House Inventory in October 2025 was 42% higher than October 2024. The Northern Virginia Market segment is defined as the Counties of Fairfax & Arlington and the Cities of Alexandria, Falls Church, & Fairfax. This % increase above 2024 is consistent with the prior months starting in March 2025.

➡️ In mid-November at the time of this Post, the level of Active House for Sale Inventory remains high compared to 2024, as weekly New Contracts are not outpacing New Listings by a degree to materially reduce the high Inventory level.

Unless the end of the Government Shutdown this week, coupled with the current Buyer Leverage Trifecta that currently exists, causes more Buyers to act, Inventory level will continue to remain high through the end of the year compared to 2024. More Active Houses for sale gives Buyers more options to consider, which means continued upward pressure on Days on Market as a significant % of houses linger on market.

Read about the Buyer Leverage Trifecta below the October Market data slides.

What are the elements of the Buyer Leverage Trifecta?

1️⃣ In the Northern Virginia Market segment*, we have far more Active House for Sale Inventory in late Fall 2025 than in 2024, with Buyers taking far longer to decide upon a House.  On November 12th, Active Houses had a 42 day Median/61 day Average time on Market, with the 50% of Active Houses above the Median at 103 days. In October, the Active House Inventory was 42% higher than October 2024, following September's 41% increase over 2024. The high Inventory number continues in November as the number of New Contracts each week is not materially different than the New Listings.

More Active Inventory, with Buyers taking longer to decide upon a house, means less competition for Buyers looking for their Home of Choice.

*The NoVA Market segment includes Fairfax & Arlington Counties and the Cities of Alexandria, Fairfax, & Falls Church.

2️⃣ Mortgage rates have declined since mid-Summer to the level that is near the recent one ear low point.

➡️ As of November 14, Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey had the 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate at 6.24%, which is near the lowest level since early October 2024 (6.17% & 6.19% in late October 2025).

➡️ The 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate has dropped about 0.50% since mid-Summer 2025. In late September, the 30 Year Fixed Rate weekly average was 6.26%. The weekly average in late August was 6.56%. At the end July, the weekly average was 6.72%.

➡️ The current rate is nearing the lowest level in the last 3 years (6.08% in late September 2024 & 6.09% in early February 2023).

3️⃣ The Seasonality effect upon Seller Mindset as we moved into November. Sellers with Active Houses have to start worrying when an offer will occur as Buyer activity historically declines as we end October into November.  At some point in November, a sizeable number of active Buyers who have not yet found their home will put their search on hold until after the Holidays. This situation creates an "if I do not reach agreement with this Buyer who made an offer, when will another offer come" scenario that gives an additional point of Leverage to the Buyer.

➡️For my most recent Deep Dive into Buyer activity, high Active House for sale Inventory & Days on Market in the Northern Virginia market, and the (lack of) impact of the Government Shutdown on Buyer activity compared to 2024, check out my early November 2025 NoVA Market Update.

See more market news, insight, & analysis on my "How's the Market?" Blog at bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.

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