Early March Northern Virginia Real Estate Market Update | A Continued 'Split Market' in the Active House for Sale Inventory
- Scott Ford
- 3 days ago
- 4 min read
Updated: 2 days ago
How is the Northern Virginia real estate market in early March 2026?
What does the current Market data tell us about the 2026 Spring Market?
Let's get the Inside Scoop by looking at the 'Split Market' in Active House for Sale Inventory between recently listed Houses and 'stale' Houses that carried over from late-2025.
All data for Houses <$2M; Excluding Condos & New Builds. As the largest market in NoVA, Fairfax County is a good barometer of the Overall NoVa market. The NVAR Northern Virginia Market segment includes Fairfax & Arlington Counties and the Cities of Alexandria, Fall Church, & Fairfax.
➡️ The Active House for Sale Market is 'Split' Between Recently Listed Houses & Houses That Date Back to Late-2025. On March 4th, the Active Houses for Sale had the following Days on Market (DoM) for the Northern Virginia Market Segment.
45% of Active Houses have less than 21 Days.
⬇️COMPARED TO⬇️
55% of Active Houses have more 21+ Days, with these Houses having nearly a 4 month Average time on Market.
46% of Active Houses have 30+ Days, with a 4 month Average.
30% of Active Houses have 60+ Days, with a 5 month Average (i.e., a late September/early October 2025 list date).
Fairfax County has similar DoM data, with 40% of Active House having less than 14 Days. 33% of Active Houses have more than the Average Days for all Active Houses (56 days), with these Houses have a 3+ month Average time on Market).
☑️ The % of 60+ DoM Houses should decline in March as more New Listings enter the Market.
☑️ The % of 30+ DoM Houses declined over the past five (5) weeks as follows: 56%, 56%, 54%, 50%, & 46%.
☑️ However, even as the % of houses with 4-5 months on Market decline, there will still be a sizeable number of Houses with high DoM Active for Sale. Unless Buyers start to view these Houses as an opportunity for a great ‘Buy-In’ price (or Sellers start taking these Houses off market), we are likely to have a large ‘chunk’ of high DoM Houses sitting without movement.
➡️ Buyers Continue to Focus Upon Newer Listed Houses & Look Past the 'Stale' Houses with High DoM, Even Though These Houses are Half the Active House for Sale Inventory. So far, Buyers have largely ignored the high DoM Houses. The last two (2) two-week Under Contract tracking periods for Fairfax County (Jan 29-Feb 11 & Feb 12-25) showed that Buyers favored Houses with 14- DoM by a 3 or 4-to-1 margin vs. Houses with more than the Average DoM for all Under Contract Houses (27 days & 22 days during these two periods).
During the current two-week Under Contract tracking period (ending March 11), 81% of Under Contract Houses have 14- DoM (135 out of 166).
➡️ What Does This 'Split' Active House Market Mean? It Means that Buyers Have Both a Choice & an Opportunity. The divergence between Under Contract and Active House DoM means a Buyer opportunity exists. Buyers can seek to leverage high DoM Houses for lower ‘Buy-In’ price. Sellers with high DoM Houses need to weigh risk of Buyers focusing on the ever increasing number of newly listed Houses, as their ‘stale’ House lingers.
➡️ What is the Key Data to Watch Over the Next 2-3 Weeks?
🌟 Apart from the Weekly New Listings vs. New Contract numbers, I am focusing on the DoM chart as an leading indicator for the Overall NoVA Market. The earliest sign we will have of whether Buyers have a quick vs. long(er) decision process this year as compared to 2025 is whether Houses that listed in early February forward start to show up in the 21+ and 30+ DoM categories. If these categories increase (or maintain current levels) even as New Listings ramp up in March, that would be a sign that a sizeable number of Houses are staying on Market for 3+ weeks (or perhaps more accurate to state Houses are staying on Market a similar amount of time as we saw in March 2025).
Last March, Active Listings were up 55% versus March 2024. This increase was due in part to New Listings outpacing New Contracts, coupled with New Listings being up 25% vs. March 2024. The increase in Active Listings last March was also due to the Buyer decision process being elongated in response to external factors (e.g., uncertainty caused by DOGE actions).
🌟 Weekly New Contracts & New Listings numbers for signs of increased Buyer Activity from 2025 in response to ‘Spring Buying Market’ psychology & Mortgage Rates at a 3+ Year low point. Buyer Activity on recently listed Houses seems to be solid, with numbers slightly higher than 2025 for the same period (New Contracts +4% vs. 2025 over the last two 2 week tracking periods). No signs yet of a 'Breakout' of significantly higher Buyer Activity or Sellers moving to sell as compared to 2025.
🌟Whether the Active House Inventory returns to the prior Historical trend of falling during the Spring Market even as new Listings start to increase in February vs. Inventory increasing each month as in Spring 2025.
🌟 Weekly Active House for Sale Inventory as a measure of whether the long Buyer house decision process in 2025 that increased Days on Market & Active Inventory level continues into 2026. Does Buyer Activity increase or quicken as New Listings start to ramp up in late-February into March? Do New Listings increase vs. 2025 as Sellers who deferred action in 2023-2025 due to higher Mortgage Rates now act to list their house with Rates at a 3+ Year low point?
WANT TO SEE MORE MARKET ANALYSIS? See more market news, insight, & analysis at my "How's the Market?" Blog at bellacasapartners.com/marketnews.
Check out my first Deep Dive NoVA Real Estate Market Update for 2026 at the link below. The next Deep Dive Market Update will be in mid-March.
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